2024 Epsom Derby Tips, Preview & Predictions

Parimatch UK Editorial Team |

24/05/24
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The Epsom Derby goes by several names. To many, it’s the Epsom Derby, but it’s also known as the Derby and the Derby Stakes. In short, this is a Group 1 race that three-year-old colts and fillies can enter. The flat race takes place at Epsom Downs Racecourse, which is in Surrey and is run on the first Saturday of June annually. The distance of the race is four miles, one furling and ten yards. 

As far as flat races in Britain go, the Epsom Derby is by far and away the richest of them all and is one of the five Classics, which also include the 2,000 Guineas Stakes, 1,000 Guineas Stakes, The Oaks and the St Leger Stakes. The Derby is also the second race of the iconic Triple Crown, with it sandwiched between the 2,000 Guineas Stakes and the St Leger Stakes. The prize pool of the Derby Stakes is in excess of £1.6 million, and the next renewal is on June 1, 2024. 

Who Is The Favourite For The Epsom Derby 2024?

There will be a correlation between Epsom Derby odds and Epsom Derby tips because both suggest the Derby in 2024 will be very much a two-horse race between City of Troy and Arabian Crown, with the former the slight favourite at the time of writing. But are City of Troy and Arabian Crown the real deal heading into the big race? 

City of Troy is trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by jockey Ryan Moore. There are several reasons why tips for the Epsom Derby suggest City of Troy will be the winner, and we’ve already mentioned two, with the O’Brien and Moore link up one of the strongest on the flat, especially in big races. City of Troy has an excellent record, although it was the beaten odds on favourite last time out in May at Newmarket. 

Arabian Crown, very much like City of Troy, has a great trainer in Charlie Appleby and a fantastic jockey on board in William Buick. So, it immediately ticks those two boxes off. You could also argue that Arabian Crown is in better form than City of Troy heading into the Derby, with four wins from its last four races. Epsom Derby betting tips suggest it won’t be far away for the reasons mentioned above. 

Potential Outsiders To Watch

For some people, it’s not the favourites they will be looking at when exploring horse racing odds covering the Epsom Derby. It’s the outsiders who are generally available at bigger prices. In terms of the odds as they stand, there are four horses that you could put in the bracket of being outsiders but also being outsiders that have a chance of success, and they are Los Angeles, Ancient Wisdom, Ambiente Friendly and Diego Velazquez. 

Starting with Los Angeles, another Aidan O’Brien-trained horse, this is seen as an outsider based on the odds offered. However, it’s currently undefeated, won on its reappearance at Leopardstown recently and is therefore in great form. Ancient Wisdom, a Charlie Appleby-trained horse, is another outsider but still a contender, with two wins from two and four from five. 

Ambiente Friendly, an Irish horse trained by James Fanshawe, has often been an outsider in recent races it has been entered into but has managed to win two from four, proving that it’s a capable challenger at the very least. And, it will come as no surprise to some that Aidan O’Brien also trains Diego Velazquez. When ridden by Ryan Moore as the odds-on favourite, Diego Velazquez won but has since finished 6/7 and 4/13 and was well beaten by Ancient Wisdom, too. 

Best Trainers At The Epsom Derby

Based on the last twenty renewals of the Epsom Derby, the number one trainer where the race is concerned is, of course, Aidan O’Brien. He’s trained seven winners from the last twenty races – Camelot (2012), Ruler of the World (2013), Australia (2014), Wings of Eagles (2017), Anthony van Dyck (2019), Serpentine (2020) and last year’s winner Auguste Rodin (2023). 

In the last twenty Epsom Derbys, the only two other trainers to record multiple winners are Sir Michael Stoute, who has registered three, and Charlie Appleby, who has been victorious on two occasions. The current odds suggest both O’Brien and Appleby specifically have a great chance of adding to their number of Derby Stakes wins this June. 

Best Jockeys At The Epsom Derby

Again, using the last twenty renewals of the Epsom Derby as a benchmark, there are only two jockeys who have multiple wins to their name, and they are Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori. Moore’s three victories came on board Work Force in 2010, Ruler of the World in 2013 and last year’s winner, Auguste Rodin. He heads into the 2024 race likely to be on board current favourite City of Troy for trainer Aidan O’Brien, and tips for Epsom Derby suggest he has a great chance of winning. 

For Dettori, his time riding at the Epsom Derby has come to an end. Therefore, while he has two victories from the last twenty renewals, it’s a number that he won’t be adding to. So, it presents a fantastic opportunity for Moore to collect his fourth win since 2010.

Epsom Derby Trend Analysis

How often have favourites won over the last 20 years? 

It’s the age-old question to ask how often favourites win in horse racing. And in this case, how frequently favourites have won the Derby over the last twenty years? The answer is six favourites have been winners, with two finishing second and three finishing third. There is some suggestion that Epsom Oaks odds run more true to form than Derby odds. 

Where did winners run last time out? 

Newmarket and York are the two courses that have gone on to then produce the winner of the Epsom Derby. Each of the courses has provided six winners apiece, which is quite something.