England World Cup Preview

England Expects

The Three Lions’ five-year upward trajectory has been hugely promising and a maturing, impressive squad now harbours a justifiable sense of belief.

Somewhat perversely, however, manager Gareth Southgate leads his team to the Middle East knowing he is a man under pressure.

Results in this summer’s UEFA Nations League have rewritten the script for many England supporters. A failure to win any of June and September’s six matches have pulled heads out of clouds and filled them with doubt.

Draws against Germany were nothing more than evidence of Teutonic decline and England’s addiction to dodgy penalties. Past allegations of passivity were brought back to trial in four goalless outings against Italy and Hungary – the 4-0 home humiliation to the Hungarians the final straw for critics of Southgate’s conservative selections.

Waistcoat turned scapegoat. The man who had rekindled supporters’ love for team in 2018 and led the Three Lions to their first major final in 55 years became the source of England’s ills.

And some of the criticism is deserved. Southgate undoubtedly erred in the Euro 2020 final, where cautious selections and timid reactions let slip a generation’s greatest chance of glory. A moment missed for fear of losing when glory was there to be grabbed.

But it’s not over yet – this team can still achieve under this manager.

Recent results have been tough but there have been moments to make us believe that final step can be taken. The pieces are there for Southgate to place even if the puzzle has yet to be completed. The form of Harry Kane, the drive of Jude Bellingham, and Southgate’s slight step towards flair each offers hope. A couple of pieces must fall into place and the ignition sparked. But England are not far off and a maligned leader could yet guide the Three Lions to glory.

7/1 – England to win the 2022 World Cup

Southgate You’re The One

Even when at the height of his popularity there have been murmurings over Southgate’s lack of experience and an inelegant management style that does not live up to his sartorial grace.

The former England Under-21s coach had a free hit at the 2018 World Cup – a festival of beer-showers, waistcoat homage and Atomic Kitten renditions from unexpectant England supporters who giddily accepted a run to the semi-finals by any means necessary.

Beneath the terrace glee, however, more sober analysts were quietly pointing out that, actually, England were not suddenly the fourth-best team in the world. In fact, they weren’t really very good at all.

Tunisia had been mugged in the last minute by the second of two set-piece goals. Panama were a joke of an opposition. Penalties were needed to beat Colombia, and Sweden simply never turned up in the quarter-finals. Semi-final defeat to a technically and tactically superior Croatia side and defeats to Belgium in both the group stage and third-place play-off showed England’s true standing – solid set-piece specialists who had benefitted from a kind draw.

But to dismiss Southgate’s achievement in getting England anywhere near the semi-finals – by whatever means – would grossly understate the scale of the task ahead of him when he arrived in October 2016.

England had just suffered Euro 2016 humiliation against Iceland – a national disgrace following hot on the heels of a pitiful group-stage exit at Brazil 2014, where a single point was taken from a section containing Costa Rica, Uruguay and Italy. Kind draws were no guarantee of progress for this tame breed of lions.

The golden generation had long-since faded. Wayne Rooney was no longer the solver of problems but a problem to solve – his playing powers diminished yet dressing-room authority immense. The grim failures of Roy Hodgson, Fabio Capello and Steve McClaren, the false promise of Sven-Goran Eriksson’s dream team and the embarrassment of Sam Allardyce’s one-match tenure had poisoned a fanbase and turned Wembley terraces toxic.

Thrown into the middle the maelstrom was Southgate, the softest of targets for the boo-boys. An over-promoted youth-team coach with an empty CV. Thoughtful and considered in his press conferences when this England lot needed a rocket up ‘em. Just another FA yes-man.

And boo they did. As England welcomed Southgate to the dugout by easing past Malta’s ten-man defence, a fractured fanbase spewed their distain from the stands.

Supporters then would have scoffed at the notion of a World Cup semi-final and European Championship runners-up spot. Had they been offered either – however ponderous or fortuitous the route – not a single one would have stopped to read the small print.

For all that, Southgate should neither be sainted nor absolved of all sins. He has enjoyed some kind twists of fortune and made errors which can fairly be criticised.

The rise of several talented players has smoothed his path. But it was his squad management that allowed the smooth transition between safe, older options and fresh new faces. Jordan Pickford was a controversial replacement for Joe Hart in 2018. Rooney’s captaincy went to 23-year-old Kane – an obvious talent but a youngster with just five international goals to his name. An inexperienced Harry Maguire, then of Leicester, replaced established centre-backs Gary Cahill of Chelsea and Chris Smalling of Manchester United. Maguire repaid Southgate’s faith by starring in Russia.

Many choices that now seem obvious were bold calls at the time as Southgate accelerated the international development of his squad, forging his own luck in the process.

Question marks remain over Southgate’s tactical acumen, his in-game management and whether a cautious nature is now holding England back rather than propelling them forward.

But there past signs point to a man who does learn from his mistakes and is not afraid to try new things. His adoption of a three-man defence has worked defensively to bring results, even if it has yet to consistently deliver thrills.

The reluctance to unleash his side in the Euro 2020 final was a fatal misstep but there have been signs of him looking to loosen the reins in recent outings, albeit without yet finding the right balance.

But Southgate has created a solid base both on and off the pitch and retains trust and popularity among his squad. And there is no question that England are in a better state now than when he took on the impossible job.

Building from the back

While not among the strongest squads in Qatar, England boast a world-class striker, an elite goalkeeper, Champions League quality in most areas and plenty of emerging talent.

The goalkeeping position is now an area of strength. Now 28, Jordan Pickford has improved his decision-making, has excellent passing range and boasts the second-highest save percentage in the Premier League. Newcastle’s Nick Pope is a superb second-choice option and Aaron Ramsdale offers depth.

Centre-back is England’s main area of concern. A fully-fit and in-form trio of Kyle Walker, John Stones and Harry Maguire offers a healthy combination of pace, passing quality and aerial ability, but there are concerns over Walker’s fitness and Maguire’s rock-bottom confidence.

All three are prone to defensive lapses at the best of times, so Southgate has a problem which his squad doesn’t have obvious answers to. Only Eric Dier is pushing hard to break into the starting line-up but his form is also a concern. Conor Coady and Ben White are solid back-up options but not one of the six centre-backs is left-footed and all but Maguire are more comfortable on the right or centre of a back three – it will be hard to remove the Manchester United man from the firing line.

Injuries to Chelsea pair Ben Chilwell and Reece James have downgraded an area of strength at wing-back, with James’ absence a particular blow given his superb form.

Kieran Trippier will fill in more than adequately however. The defensive nous acquired at Atletico Madrid masks his limited athleticism and Trippier’s set-piece delivery will prove a serious weapon. Trent Alexander-Arnold brings world class playmaking ability but his lack of defensive awareness will be a huge concern against better opponents.

On the left, Luke Shaw will have a busy tournament in the absence of convincing rotation options, but he is a solid all-rounder. Southgate has previously tried Bukayo Saka and Trippier in the position but neither are particularly convincing alternatives.

Midfield options

While Southgate will sometimes use a back four in a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 , his preferred option is a 3-4-3 formation.

He has previously used two defensive midfielders in the system, which makes England rock-solid but offers poor ball progression, starving the front three of service.

To alleviate that, Southgate has started to introduce a more progressive option alongside one defensive midfielder, with the box-to-box dynamism of Jude Bellingham preferred to the passing range of James Ward-Prowse.

It asks a lot of a likely central midfield pairing of Declan Rice and Bellingham but both players have the potential to blossom into world-class talents. However, at just 23 and 19 respectively, neither is anywhere near their peak just yet and the partnership’s superb ball-winning and carrying ability comes at the cost of a relative lack of nous and positional awareness at international level.

It remains an area of strength, however, and in the likes of Kalvin Phillips – who is back from injury – Jordan Henderson and Conor Gallagher there is quality and experience in reserve, with plenty of options to change the balance if needed.

A misfiring frontline

Attack remains a conundrum despite the presence of a world-class striker in Kane.

Southgate prefers a runner on one side of Kane to attack space behind the opposition and a creator on the other side, who alternates between dropping deep to build play and pulling wide to stretch opponents.

However, for all its latent potential the go-to front three of Raheem Sterling, Kane and Phil Foden has never quite clicked and while Southgate considers Sterling a key man, it may be in Qatar that a new combination emerges.

There are plenty of alternatives. A Saka, Kane, Jack Grealish trio is an attractive alternative that retains the mixture of pace and creativity. Mason Mount offers tactical awareness and is a natural fit for a hybrid role that would see him switch between attack and midfield to make up a 3-5-2. James Maddison is the in-form option who brings superb long-range shooting and passing ability.

The lack of convincing back-up to Kane is a concern and an injury to the England captain would be a massive blow. However, Marcus Rashford’s form is encouraging and Callum Wilson is a consistently reliable goalscorer when fit.

8/1 – Harry Kane to be tournament top goalscorer

No need to panic

While results and some performances have been disappointing, the summer’s Nations League results must be put firmly in context.

No manager or player wanted those fixtures to take place. June’s matches were crammed in unnecessarily within days of the conclusion of the domestic season – four matches packed into 11 days to fulfil the requirements of a third-rate competition. Four glorified friendlies to complete a ridiculous run of 22 international outings between June 2021 and June 2022.

Squads were exhausted and at least four of England’s fringe players were trialled in the defeats to Hungary and 0-0 draw against Italy. The first XI played away in Germany and earned a respectable draw.

Before that, England had gone 22 matches unbeaten – bar penalty shootout defeat in the Euro 2020 final. A European Championship qualifying defeat in Czech Republic remains their only meaningful 90-minute loss in 45 outings between the 2018 World Cup and this summer, with the other four arriving in the Nations League.

And England’s run to the Euro 2020 final was no cakewalk and offered plenty of encouragement.

While the early performances were stodgy, clean sheets were kept in all three group matches as Croatia and Czech Republic were dispatched 1-0, while Scotland held out for a turgid 0-0.

England impressed in the round of 16, beating Germany 2-0 and went on to thrash Ukraine 4-0 in the quarter-finals. The semi-final became a nervy affair in which victory owed plenty to a dubious penalty decision in extra-time, but it was England were far the better team and it was wastefulness in front of goal rather than a lack of creativity that kept Denmark in the game.

The final was a different matter, with Southgate undoubtedly at fault when failing to take control of a game that was there to be won. It was heart-breaking for England fans but Italy – the widely toasted team of the tournament – still needed penalties to finally tame the Three Lions.

And there are signs that Southgate has learned from that failure, with Bellingham’s inclusion a clear indication that the England manager recognises the need for a more front-footed approach.

England cruised through a potentially awkward World Cup qualification campaign and September’s Nations League outings were instructive to Southgate’s mindset – a progressive 3-4-3 would have delivered victory over Germany if not for Nick Pope’s late goalkeeper error and deserved a draw on the balance of play away in Italy.

Recent results have been disappointing, but context paints them in a less damning light.

Strengths and weakness

Concerns remain. At centre-back, Maguire and Dier are out of form, while Walker must work his way back to fitness during the tournament. Injuries have undermined strength in depth at wing-back and a midfield two may struggle for dominance. Sterling and Foden have yet to convince they can bring the best out of Kane.

But there are plenty of positives.

For once, Kane heads to a major international tournament fully fit and in rich goalscoring form. Bellingham’s driving runs and Trippier’s crossing ability should provide him with ammo and Southgate has options aplenty to mix things up alongside him.

Rice is growing in stature and behind him a back three brings offers the solidity and protection that could help nurse Maguire back into form.

A kind group stage draw could prove decisive.

A section containing resolute Iran, a Gareth Bale-inspired Wales and energetic USA is not to be taken for granted but nor is it a group of death. England should be able to afford a few missteps as Southgate looks for the best blend in attack and the defence looks to build confidence and cohesion.

England’s route through to the last eight is gentler than for most and they could arrive in the quarter-finals to meet bigger names already battle wearied from testing early engagements.

Fate and fortune will play its part. But England bring a solid squad packed with players who boast recent experience of facing top opposition en route to the final days of international tournaments. There are none of the cliques, squabbles and disharmony that has undermined past England squads and derailed defending champions. Southgate has nurtured a group eager to fight for him and one another.

England do not travel as favourites. The brilliance of Brazil, Messi’s magical finale and formidable French firepower are just three of the daunting hurdles standing before them. But the Three Lions should fear nobody as head to Qatar with quality, with unity and with the chance to once again roar on the world’s greatest stage.

View our latest World Cup markets here

18+ | begambleaware.org