Jon Jones v Ciryl Gane Preview

Jon Jones: Path to Victory

During Jones’ rise to the top, he became the youngest champion in UFC history before scorching through the light heavyweight division, defending his title 11 times, beating generations of champions.

The 35 year old excels in wrestling, striking, he has a rock solid chin, and his fight IQ – the ability to figure an opponent out – is second to none. His god given gifts also set him apart – Jones is blessed with one of the longest reaches in the UFC, an asset he used to great effect at light heavyweight. When the American enters the cage on March 4, however, he’ll do so in a new division where he’ll no longer hold the physical advantages.

At 205-pounds, Jones was content to stay on the outside, working his jab and landing sneaky oblique kicks. In Gane, he faces a man naturally larger than him and with a similar reach. The Frenchman is a skilled striker with excellent movement, and will likely force Jones to be more aggressive. Jones’ natural path to victory is controlling the range with his superior wrestling skills.

When Gane met Francis Ngannou in January 2022, Ngannou dominated him on the canvas.  The Cameroonian took Gane down four times over five rounds and kept him there. If Ngannou, who was carrying injuries and is not known for his ground-game, was able to control Gane on the floor, an expert wrestler like Jones has more than a chance.

Gane may well have learned from that defeat. But if he can’t defend against one of the finest wrestlers we’ve ever seen, Jones may well take him back to the floor and unleash those pointy elbows to remind us why he was given the nickname ‘Bones’. Jones is also training with grappling master and brilliant fight mind Henry Cejudo, a Jones-Cejudo partnership will worry any fighter that struggles defensively.

It will be a long night for the Gane if he doesn’t have an answer to Jones’ advances.

Jon Jones to win: 4/7

Ciryl Gane: Path to Victory

In the three years Jones has been on the sidelines, Gane, a former Muay Thai champion, has been active, competing six times and establishing himself as a leading heavyweight. The Frenchman couples striking ability with the speed, agility and footwork of a smaller man. He has the rare commodity of both size and mobility. Gane is a hulking behemoth, but he moves faster than Jones ever did in his heyday at 205-pounds. When Gane’s allowed to enter his rhythm – patiently moving in and out of distance, switching stances, using feints to keep his opponents guessing before unleashing explosive attacks – he dominates.

The 32 year old has scored victories in 10 of his 11 contests, most recently knocking out tough Australian Tai Tuivasa. Even the baddest man on the planet, Francis Ngannou, was cautious not to allow Gane to get his stand-up game going, choosing to wrestle him instead. If Gane, learning from the Ngannou fight, can nullify Jones’ attacks by controlling the distance with his movement, he can impose his own advantages. He has the frame to compete with Jones’ length, and the kickboxing prowess to, more than likely, outmatch Jones on the feet.  If Jones can’t take Gane down and is forced to stand for five rounds you’d have to favour the Frenchman.

Towards the end of Jones’ last reign, he lacked motivation and appeared to be on the decline.  Now at 35 years old he’s also arguably past his prime. Gane, meanwhile, is on the rise. He has no real miles on the clock and has the style to cause Jones problems. And while Gane doesn’t possess the destructive power of a Francis Ngannou, he can still hurt you, ask Tai Tuivasa. How will Jones, the smaller man, cope with Gane’s heavyweight firepower?

Ciryl Gane to win: 11/8

An unstoppable force?

Jones hasn’t competed since outpointing Dominick Reyes in February 2020, a considerable amount of time to be out of competitive action. Then again, we’re not dealing with an ordinary athlete. This is Jon Jones, a man whose career has been plagued by inactivity. Between 2014-2018 he fought once per year due to suspensions and out-of-cage controversies. And yet each time he jumped off the couch, put in a training camp, stepped in against the world’s best and won. This is a man who does not understand the definition of ring rust, and a man who has admitted to partying in a run up to fights and still delivered stellar performances.

Jones is no ordinary athlete and no ordinary mind. He’s a man that possesses next level fight IQ, allowing him to figure opponents out and repeatedly beat them at their own game. Jones has chosen to out-wrestle the wrestlers, and out-strike the strikers.  Will Jones, coming off a three year hiatus and moving up to heavyweight, come out into the centre of the Octagon and trade with a sharpshooter like Gane? There are smoother paths to victory for Jones, but don’t rule out Jones doing what Jones does – beating his opponent at his own game.

Jon Jones to win by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission: 9/4

In Conclusion...

In total, Jones has had 14 world title fights. He’s incredibly experienced and has always got the job done. While Gane will not walk into the Octagon in fear on March 4, he will still enter with a loss on his record. When the chips were down, he failed to reverse course. He failed to find a way to win against Ngannou. Something Jones has never failed to do.

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